Some pandemic-era prices are likely permanent. But cheaper gasoline, slower rent growth and rising real wages could finally make ordinary life feel affordable again.

Inflation is easing. That is unquestionably good news.

But it is not necessarily the news Americans have been waiting to hear.

After several years of paying ever more for groceries, housing, insurance, automobiles, restaurant meals and nearly every other feature of ordinary life, consumers are not merely asking when prices will stop rising so quickly.

They want to know when prices will actually come down.

The answer is complicated but not entirely discouraging.

Some prices will fall. Some are already falling. Others will probably remain close to their current levels, leaving households to recover through wage growth rather than a return to 2020 price tags.

This is the difference between lower inflation and lower prices. Inflation measures the speed at which prices are rising. When inflation falls from 8% to 3%, prices are still going up — just more slowly. For the overall price level to decline, the economy would need deflation, something policymakers generally try to avoid because sustained deflation can accompany recessions, job losses and falling wages.

That does not mean Americans are trapped forever in an economy where every grocery trip is more expensive than the last.

Gasoline is the category most likely to deliver visible relief first. Pump prices respond relatively quickly to changes in crude oil supplies, refining capacity, seasonal demand and geopolitical risk. If energy markets continue stabilizing, drivers could see meaningful declines through the fall and winter.

For a family buying 50 gallons a month, an 80-cent decline would save approximately $40. That alone will not transform a household budget, but gasoline occupies an unusual place in the public imagination. Its price is displayed in giant numbers on almost every major road. When it falls, Americans notice immediately.

Groceries will be slower and more uneven.

The overall grocery basket is unlikely to return to its 2020 cost. Food prices have risen too much, and the higher expenses embedded in labor, transportation, packaging, processing and retail operations will not disappear overnight.

But “grocery prices” are not one unified market. Eggs, beef, coffee, milk, cooking oils, breakfast cereal and fresh vegetables each respond to different conditions.

Egg prices can fall sharply when poultry flocks recover. Produce can become cheaper after a strong harvest. Coffee prices may retreat when global supplies improve. Supermarkets can restore promotions, expand store-brand offerings and pressure manufacturers that raised prices too aggressively.

A cereal box that cost $3 in 2020 may never permanently return to $3. But a box priced at $6 might fall to $5, appear frequently on sale for $4 or lose customers to a store brand costing $3.50. Consumers experience those changes as relief even if the official price index never completely reverses.

The more realistic hope is that grocery inflation approaches zero for stretches of time. The weekly total stops climbing. Some products become cheaper while others remain stubbornly expensive. Shoppers regain the ability to save money by changing brands, buying sale items and choosing among competing stores.

Rent is even stickier.

Landlords usually prefer offering a free month, waived fees or free parking rather than publicly lowering the advertised rent. That allows them to preserve the appearance of higher rental values while quietly reducing what tenants actually pay.

But the rental market is beginning to shift in favor of tenants in many parts of the country. New apartment construction has expanded supply, vacancy rates have risen, and concessions have become more common. In markets that built aggressively, renters may see flat renewals or outright reductions.

The national average is more likely to plateau than collapse. Even that would help.

Suppose a household’s rent remains at $1,800 for two years while its income rises 3% or 4% annually. The rent has not fallen in dollar terms, but it consumes a smaller portion of the family’s earnings. This is how housing affordability often recovers: wages gradually catch up to rents.

That process could shape the household economy over the next six months.

If wages continue rising around 3.5% while inflation settles closer to 2% or 2.5%, workers will begin gaining real purchasing power. A typical household might pick up $40 to $80 a month from wages outpacing prices, another $30 to $45 from cheaper gasoline and perhaps $10 to $30 through grocery stabilization and better promotions.

Renters who secure a concession could save considerably more.

For many families, the combined improvement could amount to $75 to $200 a month. It would not restore the purchasing power lost since 2020, but it could stop the continuing erosion.

The first result may not be more restaurant meals or vacations. Households carrying expensive credit-card balances will probably use the savings to stop borrowing, catch up on bills and reduce debt. Only later will they rebuild emergency funds or increase discretionary spending.

That helps explain why public confidence may recover more slowly than inflation statistics. A family using an extra $150 a month to pay down debt is becoming financially healthier, even if it does not feel more prosperous.

Higher prices are, in many cases, the new normal. But economic hardship does not have to be.

The optimistic future is not a magical return to the old price level. It is an economy in which gasoline declines, grocery bills stabilize, rent increases become rare and paychecks finally grow faster than the cost of living.

Americans may not get the old prices back. They can still regain the old feeling that an ordinary income is enough to cover an ordinary life.

(Contributing writer, Brooke Bell)